Mossadning Eron rejasi barbod bo'ldi: Isroil razvedkasidagi tarixiy tozalash va xavfsizlik inqirozi

Isroil jamoatchiligi Mossad milliy razvedka agentligining Eron maydonidagi katta strategik mag'lubiyati oqibatlaridan larzaga keldi. Mamlakatning ikki yetakchi media organiIsrael Hayom va Ynet tomonidan olib borilgan tahlillar Tel-Aviv ma'muriyatining Eronga qarshi yashirin rejalarining qanday fiyaskoga aylanganini ochiq ko'rsatmoqda. Agentlikning yangi rahbari Roman Gofmanning xavfsizlik nuqtai nazaridan faqat “K” va “Y” deb nomlanuvchi Eron razvedka boshqarmasi boshlig‘i va boshlig‘i lavozimlarida ishlagan ikki nafar yuqori martabali shaxsni ishdan bo‘shatgani Mossad shu paytgacha o‘z zimmasiga olgan majburiyatlarini bajara olmaganining eng aniq dalili sifatida qaralmoqda.

Razvedka tarixidagi eng katta fiasko: 1997-yildan keyingi birinchisi

Maxfiylik tamoyili asosida ishlaydigan Mossaddagi bunday tanqidiy tozalashlarning matbuotga chiqib ketishi Isroil xavfsizlik byurokratiyasida chuqur zarba to'lqinini keltirib chiqardi. Qobiliyatsizlik va muvaffaqiyatsizlik tufayli ishdan bo'shatishning shunga o'xshash to'lqini oxirgi marta 1997 yilda, Iordaniyada Xamas siyosiy byurosi rahbari Xolid Meshalga qarshi suiqasd fiasko bilan yakunlanganidan keyin sodir bo'lgan edi. Bugungi kunda Isroil "tarixidagi eng katta strategik xato" deb ta'riflangan muvaffaqiyatsiz Eron operatsiyalarining og'ir narxiga duch kelmoqda. None of the plans presented to the US administration with the promise of an "easy war" that would quickly collapse the Iranian regime and its nuclear capacity have come true. Eron rahbari Ali Xomanaiyga qarshi suiqasd stsenariylari mamlakatda katta tartibsizliklar keltirib chiqaradi, xalqni isyon ko‘taradi, degan bashoratlar mutlaqo befoyda edi. Aksincha, bu holat Gʻarbga qarshi ancha qattiqroq yoʻl tutishi kutilayotgan kenja oʻgʻlining yangi diniy rahbariyatga nisbatan pozitsiyasini mustahkamladi.

Hurmuz bo'g'ozi aldanishi va halokatga uchragan psixologik urush strategiyasi

Isroillik harbiy rejachilar Tehron tomonidan Hormuz boʻgʻozini yopish ehtimoli harbiy yoʻl bilan zararsizlantirilishi mumkinligini taʼkidladi. However, in the current conjuncture, despite Washington's insistent statements that the waterway is safe, Iran's potential to take global energy corridors and the world economy hostage has become its strongest trump card. Mossadning asosiy strategiyasi Eronning ichki xavfsizlik mexanizmlarini zaiflashtirish va Iroq chegarasidan kirib kelgan qurolli guruhlar orqali ommaviy xalq harakatlarini boshlashga asoslangan edi. Ammo bu rejalar yerdagi voqelikka mos kelmadi. Suiqasdlar va havo hujumlariga qaramay, Tehronning xavfsizlik arxitekturasi silkinmadi; Aksincha, Isroil qurol sifatida foydalanmoqchi boʻlgan guruhlar ogʻir zarbalar olgan boʻlsada, kutilgan ijtimoiy isyon toʻlqini amalga oshmadi.

Mossad's psychological warfare methods, such as artificial intelligence-supported fake prison riot videos carried out through Persian social media channels and so-called humanitarian aid campaigns carried out via WhatsApp, were ridiculed by the Iranian intelligence. Yanvar oyida norozilik namoyishlariga kirgan agentlar ham rejimga to'sqinlik qiluvchi ta'sir ko'rsata olmadi. According to a report published by Israel Hayom newspaper in May, many senior officials within the agency opposed this strategy, seeing it as a "huge gamble" to channel all resources into overthrowing the Iranian regime. Agentlikning sobiq ta'sir operatsiyalari boshlig'i, oddiygina "O". "Men bu operatsiyani ichkaridagi ko'plab odamlarga sotishga majbur bo'ldim. Biroq, aslida, hech birimiz rejimni qanday ag'darish yoki uning muvaffaqiyatga erishish imkoniyatlarini bilmas edik" deb nom olgan amaldorning tan olishi strategik ko'rlik darajasini ochib beradi.

Ali Larijoniy bashorati va AQSh chegaralariga asoslangan mudofaa qalqoni

Isroil yo'l qo'ygan taktik xato Eron jabhasida ham yaqindan kuzatildi. Mart oyida, Isroil tomonidan oʻldirilishidan oldin, Eron Milliy Xavfsizlik Oliy Kengashining sobiq kotibi Ali Lorijoniy ISNA axborot agentligiga bergan bayonotida vaziyatni aniq sarhisob qildi: “Binyamin Netanyaxu bu hujumlar Eron ichida ijtimoiy portlash keltirib chiqaradi va tizimni falaj qiladi, deb hisoblagan. raketalarni uchirish uchun zarur bo'lgan harbiy kuchlar". U tezda buyruq berdi."

The current crisis has shown that the United States has difficulty in procuring missile defense systems even to protect its own military bases in the Middle East and cannot provide an unlimited protection shield to Israel in a possible regional war. Despite this, instead of learning from these grave failures, the Netanyahu government continues to take steps that will drag the region into an all-out war. According to Ynet's latest reports, the Netanyahu administration has instructed both the army and the Mossad to begin preparations for a much more comprehensive military operation in the autumn months, which has a high risk of evolving into a regional war. As seen in the examples of Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza and most recently Iran, Tel Aviv continues to cling to the dangerous illusion that it can overcome crises that it cannot resolve diplomatically and militarily through greater military escalations.