38 oydan keyin tarixiy chegara: FED qaroridan oldin bozorlarni silkitadigan 3 ta muhim stsenariy

Excitement in global markets has reached its peak before the critical interest rate meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) to be held on September 15-16. Investorlarning ko'zlari va quloqlari foiz stavkasi qarori va FED prezidentiKevin Warshning bayonotlarida bo'ladi. While a 25 basis point interest rate increase is largely priced in the markets, the statements and forward-looking messages in the decision text are expected to play a decisive role on the dollar index, US treasury bonds, precious metals, especially gold, and developing country markets.

2023-yil iyulidan beri birinchi foiz stavkasining oshishi

Looking at the history of monetary policy, it seems that the FED made its last interest rate increase move on July 26, 2023. During the said period, the bank increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.25%-5.50% band, and entered a relaxation cycle in 2024 and 2025 after maintaining this level for a long time. 2025-yil 10-dekabrda so‘nggi pasaytirish harakatini amalga oshirgan FED siyosat stavkasini 25 bazaviy punktga pasaytirib, 3,50%-3,75% oralig‘iga tushirdi. No interest rate changes were made in the January, March, April, June and July meetings held throughout 2026. Although three members voted for a 25 basis point increase at the last meeting in July, interest rates were kept constant by majority vote.

A possible 25 basis point increase in the policy rate, which has remained constant in the 3.50%-3.75% range for approximately 9 months, in September will be the first in 38 months. Bu holat global pul-kredit siyosatida yangi davr eshigini ochishi mumkin.

Bozorlarni boshqaradigan FEDning 3 ta muhim stsenariylari

Analysts are focusing not only on the interest rate decision itself at the September meeting, but also on the tone of the decision text and the verbal guidance that FED President Kevin Warsh will make. Shu munosabat bilan moliyaviy dunyoda uch xil stsenariy ajralib turadi:

Dovish Scenario: The basis of this scenario is that the FED will increase interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, but does not give strong signals for a new interest rate increase in the decision text. In such a situation, it is expected that there will be a limited increase in the dollar index and US bond yields, and temporary and slight pressures will be seen in precious metals and developing country assets. Qattiqlashuv davri tugagani haqidagi tasavvur kuchaygani sari, global xavf ishtahasi jonlanishi mumkin.

Neytral va Hawkish stsenariylarining bozordagi aksi nima?

Neutral Scenario: In this scenario, while the FED implements the 25 basis point increase decision in line with expectations, Chairman Warsh and the decision text avoid making a clear commitment for the future. Qaror qabul qilingandan so'ng bozorlarning dastlabki reaktsiyalari tinchilgach, barcha ko'zlar yana makroiqtisodiy ma'lumotlarga qaratiladi. Xususan, inflyatsiya, bandlik maʼlumotlari hamda neft va energiya narxlaridagi oʻzgarishlar bankning keyingi qadamlari haqidagi taxminlarni shakllantiradi.

Hawk Scenario: In this option, which stands out as the harshest scenario, in addition to the 25 basis point increase, the message that "new interest rate increases are on the table due to high inflation pressure" is given. Bunday holda, dollar indeksi va AQSh obligatsiyalarining daromadliligi keskin o'sishi mumkin; Oltin va rivojlanayotgan mamlakat valyutalariga jiddiy sotish bosimi bo'lishi mumkin.

Boshqa tomondan, so'rovlar FED foiz stavkalarini juda past 13,5% ehtimollik bilan doimiy ushlab turish imkoniyatini baholaydi. Bu yoʻnalishdagi qaror bozorlar uchun katta syurpriz sifatida qayd etiladi.